Bin Salman had already launched his Vision 2030 initiative, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy and boost foreign investment. The crown prince consolidated his control of military and security agencies, disbanding longstanding patronage networks and quashing potential rivals in the royal family. Within months of his appointment, the heir apparent drew widespread criticism for launching a regional blockade of Qatar and ordering a corruption crackdown in which dozens of Saudi elites were arrested and detained without formal charges. Amid the shake-up, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was summoned to Riyadh, where he resigned under apparent pressure. (He withdrew the resignation upon his return to Lebanon.) Arrests of prominent religious and political activists, including dissidents, have prompted human rights advocates to criticize the country's leadership. While the power consolidation and aggressive actions in the region are risky, he still enjoys support from the United States and many regional countries.
How Many States Did Saudi Arabia Have First, Saudi Arabia remains the largest stabilizer in the region, the last resort more vulnerable moderate states can turn to. A failed Saudi regime or a revolution in the country will send the region into turmoil of greater proportions. On the other hand, the Crown Prince is a pragmatist largely free from ideological constraints. Looking conservative, as he does not smoke, drink or take vacation overseas, Mohammed is by no means a fundamentalist.
When King Salman was governor of Riyadh Province, he turne the capital from a poor town with little oil into a cosmopolis through external cooperation, sound planning and prudent investment. Influenced by his father, the Crown Prince is fond of Japanese culture and interested in high technologies, which he believes provide ultimate solutions to social transition and security challenges in the region. With no apparent affiliations, he could easily rise above fractional conflicts.
Extensive public support also puts him at a more favorable position between Wahhabis and the United States. At a time when sectarian conflicts gives way to major power competition in the region, it is very likely that Saudi Arabia will retreat from the current risk-taking stance and return to traditional, moderate policies. Risk-taking behaviors are necessary for the Crown Prince to win public support for power consolidation when there is a radicalization at home. Despite the recent pick-up in oil prices, Vision 2030 and the ambitious plan of New Smart City remain the main tools for Saudi Arabia to manage social expectations and promote social participation. Saudi Arabia needs stability and security in the regionif only for the sake of the oil economy or diversified development.
Saudi Arabia made several attempts to promote economic privatization and diversification, but all failed. Oil dependence can be traced back to the fragility of the House of Saud, which is yet to get away from its two allies. The oversupply on the international oil markets and the explosion of its population are now two established trends. Like it or not, the shift away from the oil dependence is taking place as oil revenues are falling. People expect the government to provide basic public security and social services.
As the economic support of the regime has undergone fundamental shift and its two allies failed to respond effectively to the Arab Spring, consolidating power of the royal family is left to be the last resort to address the regime crisis and reduce dependence on oil. That said, it would be mission impossible to fulfill the tasks at such immense scale and within such narrow time window. Once power consolidation is completed and new source of regime legitimacy anchored, the most part of the reform is accomplished. With the "Saudi First" foreign policy in full swing, these developments drove the government to pour further fuel on the nationalist fire. For instance, Awwad Al-Awwad, minister of media at the time, declared that no person should remain neutral in their media coverage.
He was referring to the coverage of the ongoing war in Yemen, but this rhetoric quickly became common currency for the multiple regional and international issues the Kingdom found itself drawn into. Social media accounts now frequently publish hashtags condemning "neutrality". It aims to embed the nationalist narrative at the grassroots level by urging citizens to voice their support for these top-level aims.
Saudi Arabia's "guardianship" system requires them to seek male permission to travel, work, or leave the house; they also, famously, are not allowed to drive. King Abdullah did receive credit from International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde for his "discreet" improvement of women's lives in the country—more women than men now attend college there, and many have received scholarships to study overseas. But the kingdom's viciousness toward females extends even to the most privileged. Four of King Abdullah's 15 daughters have lived under house arrest for 13 years after publicly opposing the kingdom's policies toward women. The rapid development of the oil economy provides an economic foundation for the regime, making it more resilient to the conflicts within.
Saudi Arabia was a self-sufficient economy mainly composed of oasis agriculture until the 1930s. With its cooperation with the US in oil exploration, Saudi Arabia gradually discovered the best oil endowment in the world. The proven reserve in 2016 was about 260 billion barrels or 41 cubic kilometers, accounting for 16% of the world's total. Most of the oil is found under the surface along the coast and 70% is light or super light oil.
The cost of exploration and refinery is far lower than that in other countries. As Saudi Arabia has a small population, domestic oil consumption is moderate and a large share of the oil is exported. The huge oil revenues help to anchor US-Saudi Arabia cooperation and sustain the social traditions advocated by the Wahhabis.
The monopoly on oil rights also gives the House of Saud new ways to command loyalty. The tremendous economic and political interests spur the Saudi government to step up investment in the oil industry. At the same time, other industries have been overlooked because of low returns and cheap import substitutes. While the government made several attempts to diversify the economy, Saudi Arabia inevitably developed a dependence on oil. The oil sector contributes nearly half of Saudi Arabia's GDP, about 80% of its exports, and over 90% of its fiscal revenues. The private sector, which accounts for 40% of the GDP, mostly provides services, direct or indirect, for the oil sector.
Fragility is also inherent in US-Saudi Arabia alliance from the very beginning. First, the US-Saudi Arabia alliance is maintained at the cost of domestic politics. The US government has shown tacit tolerance toward Saudi Arabia's social and religious policies, which undermines the integrity of its moral obligation both domestically and internationally. On the part of Saudi Arabia, the government has to introduce minimum social reforms as requested by the US and take a moderate attitude toward the US supporting Israel.
As a result, the Saudi government is more isolated at home and in the region. After the 911 attacks, the argument of clash of civilizations gained traction. The United States and Saudi Arabia, as leaders of two clashing civilizations and direct parties to the incident, had their alliance under stress. Second, after many developments, the oil and security foundation of the alliance is not strong any longer. Saudi Arabia's oil production during the Second World War was less than 1% of that in the US.
What prompted the US to extend protection to Saudi Arabia is the latter's potential value and high fragility in security. On the security front, due to asymmetry in interests and perceptions, collective defense means that the two sides jointly confront security threats faced by each other and take on defense obligations that are unnecessary and even contradictory with one's own interests. In the wake of the oil crises in the 1970s, Saudi Aramco was gradually de-Americanized. The arms trade in the agreement on the US as the only means of paymentwas a manifestation of the alliance in name and no longer a symbol of their security commitment to each other. The purpose of that spat was to show the world Saudi Arabia's intolerance of criticism of its regional policies.
The Saudi government is also willing to push back internationally on any external interference in its domestic issues. In August 2018, the Canadian embassy in Riyadh tweeted a call in Arabic urging Saudi Arabia to release women's rights activists. The Kingdom retaliated, expelling the Canadian ambassador, calling Saudi students home from Canadian universities, stopping flights between the countries, and freezing trade. At home, the nationalist narrative celebrated the Kingdom's fast and resolute action. Adel Al-Jubeir, former Saudi foreign minister and current minister of state for foreign affairs, declared that Saudi Arabia was not to be treated as a "banana republic".
The episode sent a message to other nations, with Canadian interests becoming collateral damage in this. Following recognition in 1931, the United States and Saudi Arabia established full diplomatic relations, with exchange of credentials and the first U.S. ambassadorial posting to Jeddah, in 1940. Saudi Arabia's unique role in the Arab and Islamic worlds, its holding of the world's second largest reserves of oil, and its strategic location all play a role in the long-standing bilateral relationship between the Kingdom and the United States. The United States and Saudi Arabia have a common interest in preserving the stability, security, and prosperity of the Gulf region and consult closely on a wide range of regional and global issues. Saudi Arabia plays an important role in working toward a peaceful and prosperous future for the region and is a strong partner in security and counterterrorism efforts and in military, diplomatic, and financial cooperation. Its forces work closely with U.S. military and law enforcement bodies to safeguard both countries' national security interests.
The United States and Saudi Arabia also enjoy robust cultural and educational ties with some 37,000 Saudi students studying in U.S. colleges and universities and scores of educational and cultural exchange visitors each year. The United States also provides promising youth and emerging Saudi leaders the opportunity to experience the United States and its institutions through the International Visitor Leadership Program and various other exchange programs. The vast wealth generated by oil revenues was beginning to have an even greater impact on Saudi society. It led to rapid technological modernization, urbanization, mass public education, and the creation of new media. This and the presence of increasingly large numbers of foreign workers greatly affected traditional Saudi norms and values.
Although there was a dramatic change in the social and economic life of the country, political power continued to be monopolized by the royal family leading to discontent among many Saudis who began to look for wider participation in government. From that point onwards, the newly minted nationalist narrative accelerated the rise of Mohammed bin Salman, promoting him from an unknown son of the new king to the most well-known royal figure. In April 2016, support for him reached its pinnacle when he unveiled his cornerstone strategy for economic diversification, Vision 2030. This became the symbol of Mohammed bin Salman's domestic ambitions and his bid to address young people's concerns about the sustainability of an oil-dependent economy. Indeed, in implementing the vision, he has made sure to constantly underline the importance of young people, identifying them as the real vehicle for change.
Overall, the leadership has broken from the old social contract by emphasising that Saudi Arabia has now entered a new era in which citizens must contribute to the good of the country, as opposed to simply receiving benefits as their forebears did. In October, religious scholars were gathered to discuss the modification of some Islam doctrines in the name of curbing extremism. The incidents of missile attacks from Yemen and the resignation of Lebanese prime minister in early November served to distract regional and global attention. They also diverted attention from the security and emergency measures adopted by Saudi Arabia.
The Anti-corruption Commission was established overnight with a mandate to arrest princes and business executives. First, the liberals were cleansed, weakening both potential adversaries within and America's infiltration without. Second, government coffers were replenished by the confiscations while capital fleeing was curbed. Third, these measure are expected to boost the investment in Saudi Arabia's private sector and the listing of Aramco overseas.
Getting rid of the dependence on the liberals and the United States, paves the way for the Saudi government to further reform traditional social customs and develop a diversified economy. The Crown Prince is cautious in that he launched the smart city project yet limit the experiment to the coast of the Red Sea to concentrate both resources and risks so as to avoid the blow of a full-scale opening-up would deal to the conservative society. The king combines legislative, executive, and judicial functions and royal decrees form the basis of the country's legislation. The king is also the prime minister, and presides over the Council of Ministers of Saudi Arabia and Consultative Assembly of Saudi Arabia. The family's vast numbers allow it to control most of the kingdom's important posts and to have an involvement and presence at all levels of government. The number of princes is estimated to be at least 7,000, with most power and influence being wielded by the 200 or so male descendants of Ibn Saud.
The key ministries are generally reserved for the royal family, as are the 13 regional governorships. The kingdom spends 8% of its GDP on the military , which places it as the world's third biggest military spender behind the United States and China, and the world's largest arms importer from 2015 to 2019, receiving half of all the US arms exports to the Middle East. According to the BICC, Saudi Arabia is the 28th most militarized country in the world and possesses the second-best military equipment qualitatively in the region, after Israel. By the late 2010s, there have been continual calls for halting of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, mainly due to alleged war crimes in Yemen and especially following the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi unwillingness to raise oil output in response to Biden's request represents the latest sign of shifting loyalties. Throughout a seven-decade partnership, Washington has acted as Riyadh's main security guarantor, and, in return, most Saudi monarchs coordinated closely with the United States on energy issues.
Saudi Arabia's new nationalism is also visible in the country's increasingly assertive foreign policy. This policy aims both to further cement the new leadership's domestic position and to advance its bid to reshape the region in accordance with perceived Saudi interests. Interestingly, the hashtag appears to have become more common since the election of Donald Trump as US president, suggesting some interplay between nationalisms across the globe. It is even opening the door for discussion on the possibility, and benefits, of normalising relations with Israel, with the latter a potential ally in countering Iran. This year, nationalist voices on social media have set about attacking the state for its seemingly lenient attitude towards discussions of social issues on television programme The Dawood Show, calling such debates a threat to national security. The talk show began airing in early 2019 and its first episode addressed the growing problem of Saudi women fleeing the country.
Contesting such topics on air caused a backlash which resulted in suspending the program for one week. At the time is was not clear what was happening – many Saudis thought it a stunt by the state, perhaps to increase viewer numbers. In addition, online accounts are also pushing back against entertainment events and government bodies such as the Ministry of Media, arguing that people are being stripped of their values in a manner that weakens their loyalty to the leadership. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, founded in 1932, traces its roots to an alliance between the Saud family and descendants of religious cleric Sheikh Mohammed Ibn Abdul Wahab, who espoused conservative Sunni jurisprudence.
This pact has endured for centuries, influencing the country's domestic and foreign policy. Saudi authorities enforce religious restrictions, denying women rights they enjoy in Western democracies, and the government promotes its interpretation of sharia, or Islamic law, by funding religious schools around the world. Though it has recently lifted some restrictions, including a ban on women drivers, human rights groups say rights abuses persist. There is a strong foreign policy aspect to Mohammed bin Salman's own activities.
The March 2015 Saudi-led invasion of Yemen boosted him, given his position as minister of defence, and prompted the now-traditional outburst of praise for him on social and traditional media. State outlets depicted him as the "architect" of the campaign and the man in charge of "difficult missions". Moreover, the name of the military campaign, "Decisive Storm", was inspired by a quote from none other than King Abdulaziz. Indeed, just one month after the war in Yemen began, Mohammed bin Salman officially joined the succession ladder with his appointment as deputy crown prince after a second royal shake-up.
And Khalid bin Salman, one of his younger brothers, was one of the first to launch airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen. The state's oil revenues make up the vast majority of its financial resources, but these are tightly controlled by the royal family, which uses the same income to support itself. In 2018 and 2019, the state oil company, Saudi Aramco, provided more income and expenditure information in preparation for an initial public offering. However, amid ongoing questions about its relationship with the government, the company opted that December to list shares only on a domestic stock exchange, which entailed less transparency than would be required on a major international exchange.
But the effusive reaction to the king's death reveals an uncomfortable truth about Washington's relationship to the kingdom. Despite Riyadh's repulsive human rights record, unproductive role in regional security, and American advances in shale oil production, the United States needs Saudi Arabia more than ever. The Saudis have no other choice but to spend a large part of the oil forex abroad for vacation, entertainment and modern education. The lack of local skilled workers becomes the biggest obstacle holding back Saudi Arabia's efforts at economic diversification. Statistics show that only 40% of the work-age populationare fully employed, most of whom work in the government. Civil servants' salary and social benefit subsidies constitute a heavy financial burden.
Given the limited number of new jobs, Saudi Arabia has pushed for labour localization since 2000. Oil revenues have facilitated the diversified development of the Saudi society, but failed to change its dependence on oil. The impact ofthe influx of oil revenues on the Saudi society was manifested first and foremost in the tremendous changes in the demographic features.
Since oil was explored, foreign workers kept pouring in and Saudi urbanization started. Since the 1960s, thanks to imported food and modern healthcare facilities, the life expectancy in Saudi Arabia has increased by a big margin. As the Sharia Law encourages fertility, Saudi Arabia saw its population grew from 3.1 million in 1950 to 28 million in 2011, duplicating itself almost every 20 years. By 2014, foreign workers in Saudi Arabia exceeded 10 million, most of whom came from South Asia and North Africa while some 100,000 from Europe and America. Thanks to a high fertility rate and the influx of foreign workers, Saudi Arabia boasted a young population.
